Despite vaccine announcements, “we’re looking at 3–5 years of COVID”

When Pfizer first announced its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in mid-November, the world’s collective hopes soared. But Chris Miller, one of Australia’s leading risk and business continuity experts, happens to know a lot about both clinical trials and supply chain management. In our recent conversation with her, she recommended keeping expectations for an expedited return to normalcy in check.

Many hoped a vaccination rollout might occur in spring/summer 2021. But Ms. Miller asserts that a 3–5 period of “COVID Normal” is more likely. In this scenario, the spread of the disease will still need to be mitigated by practices like social distancing. Hence, all organizations must prepare to operate in this scenario for longer than they initially assumed they would.

Why the wait? Ms. Miller’s assessment includes factors such as safety, manufacturing capacity, logistics, and overall supply chain realities.

“First off, none of these vaccines have got approval. It’s all very well for Pfizer to make an announcement and see their stocks go through the roof. But they still have a fair bit of the trial to complete before they’ll have a dataset which can then be peer reviewed.

“And then when they get through those scientific hoops, they’ve got the exciting experience of…